Early Warning System - Adventurer's Project Finished

That's it.  I've done it!  I just got done plotting waypoints for certain municipal boundaries and filling in their mileages. 

This here is a map depicting the mileages from the Whipple Section - Buckeye Trail (North Country concurrent).  This is along North Country's route to the west.  The whole thing is done, but it would look like a mess in one image.  Like I mentioned in a previous log, this project has a dual purpose.  One is for a mileage sheet to go into the Trail Manuals at two shelters in SE Ohio.  The other is for our Early Warning System that pertains to mobilizing trail angels and resupply in the area.  I believe that i can make this data user friendly for all involved internally in Adventurer's Project?

The way that the Early Warning Map works is that hikers would report their positions somehow and we in far SE Ohio would track them as they come in based on what they report.  From that, we should be able to predict their arrival based on their pattern?  We'll have to readjust for irregularities, but the closer they get to us, the more accurate the prediction becomes.

At this point, all that I have to do now is enter the mileages into the Trail Manual.

NCT Westbound Mock Hiker Completed

According to my 3rd party amateur data, if the North Country Trail was hiked continuously from one end to the other, at generally 24 and 18 miles per day depending on the terrain and zero days at every 21 days generally, it would take 295 days to complete my estimate of a total length of 4,829.4 miles.  That number includes the Arrowhead in Minnesota, the NCTA's current GIS track in the Adirondack Park and a questionable smartphone trace of a map from a jogging app for part of Vermont.  My tracks still contain certain inconsistencies with the NCTA's issued tracks, but not enough to affect the total by more than +/- 15 miles.  That's that best that I can do at this time. 

According to the parameters that I use, North Dakota has two amenity gaps and takes the mock hiker into it's reserve mileage (24 to 29.5 miles) once in this state.  Those amenity gaps mean that no sleeping amenity that I could confirm here at my desk could be found within 29.5 miles of the starting location.  Routing the mock hiker into it's reserve incurs a penalty of a zero day.  It's part of the rules to keep it reasonable and highlight areas that need more support.  But, on several occasions, I routed it in to the reserve because the mock hiker was coming up on a zero day in someplace that was ideal anyways.

Even if the NCTA doesn't recognize thru hiking, I still came out with an important piece of information.  According to the written simulation, only 98.62 additional miles added to the trail's total was necessary to cover to reach an amenity off-trail.  This was in question on Buckeye last year and I sure wish that I had a number for this.

Since North Dakota features two amenity gaps, there is no need to pursue an eastbound mock hiker because the difference between the two would have to start right away. 

This is all a part of a 3rd party review (myself) of the North Country Trail's camping/ lodging capabilities.  You might call it a benchmark test?  The data from this will probably also be used to construct an "Early Warning System" map for the unofficial Adventurer's Project in SE Ohio.  The way it works is that if the hiker reports their location with mapping app or Facebook, we could input their location to our map which will show how far out they are and help predict the date of their arrival at The Wilderness Loop - Buckeye Trail (North Country partial).  I'd say that the North Country Trail at this rate of progress looks pretty healthy.  For a distance hiking trail in the Upper Midwest, it's performing well.

Early Warning System

I've always been good at the BT's maps, it's fixed amenities and generally anticipating where multi-day hikers will be next?  So, I've made a map based on an entry level thru hiker's abilities depicting where they'd most likely be 10 days out from the The Wilderness Loop in both directions.  And since the Road Fork and Whipple Sections are both North Country Trail (NCT) concurrent, 10 days out had to be tracked on the Great Trail Sandy Beaver Chapter span of that trail when it's independent in NE Ohio.

For my North Country mock hike written simulation, one of the next steps is to devise some mile markers based on campsites, campgrounds, lodging, or the intersections to these.  I had to get Great Trail Sandy Beaver's started for what I'm calling my "Early Warning System."

There are ways that I can track a thru hiker.  One is that I can follow them on Facebook.  Two is that if I get their cell numbers, we can text.  Three is that they let me follow their location somehow.  The Maps app (which is Google Maps) lets users do this.  The early warning map is on Google Earth and is more of a quick reference.

If they're more powerful than entry level thru hikers, I can still anticipate their arrival, it's just done on the pattern of their daily progress instead.  That would still give me some idea.  This was done for Adventurer's Project and a chapter that may come of it.